Karnataka Elections 2018 Opinion Poll – Latest Polls [Updated]

Karnataka Elections 2018 Opinion Poll

Karnataka Elections 2018 Opinion Poll

As the Karnataka Assembly Elections are nearing, a few survey agencies have conducted a pre-poll survey and predicted the would-be winner, and the number of votes each party may get. There are two survey agencies that have conducted the opinion poll for the upcoming Karnataka Elections. Here is the detailed report of the pre-poll survey conducted by those agencies.

  • The pre-poll survey report by C-Fore:

Opinion Poll by C-Fore
PartySeats( % )

Congress

120-13258.5%

BJP

60-7229.3%

JDS

24-3011.7%

Others

1-60.5%

C-Fore is a multidisciplinary research organization that specializes in election surveys, market research, opinion polls. The survey for Karnataka Elections 2018 Opinion Poll conducted by this agency has given Congress an absolute majority of its opponents BJP and JD(S) struggling far behind.

The survey report, which has been put up in the agency’s website and circulated by the Chief Minister’s Office on Sunday, predicts 120 to 132 seats for Congress, well ahead of the magic number of 113 for the absolute majority. This survey was not conducted at the request of any political party and was a part of C-Fore’s normal operations.

The survey, which was conducted between July 19 and August 10, predicts BJP to win 60 to 72 seats while JD(S) is left far behind with 24 to 30 seats. The C-Fore survey that used systematic random sampling methodology in selecting respondents covered a total of  24,679 voters in 165 Assembly Constituencies using a structured questionnaire.

According to the survey report, the respondents were spread across 340 urban and 550 rural locations in the state.

Also Read  Karnataka Election Results 2013 - All Constituencies
Expected Vote Share:
Party% of Votes
Congress43
BJP32
JD(S)17
Others8

The report says, if the polls were conducted between July and August, the Congress is expected to get 43 percent of the vote share which is much ahead of BJP at 32 percent and JD(S) at 17 percent.

The current Chief Minister of Karnataka enjoys the overwhelming support of the people of Karnataka as the most popular CM the state has seen in the recent past with 46 percent voting him as the best. B.S. Yeddyurappa of BJP and H D Kumaraswamy of JD(S) are nowhere near with scores of 27 percent and 18 percent, respectively.

The survey has also found out that CM Siddaramaiah’s pet scheme Anna Bhagya is the most appreciated scheme by the respondents. This is followed by the Mid-day meal scheme.

The report states that 53 percent are somewhat satisfied with the Congress government in the state and that 46 percent of the respondents would prefer Siddaramaiah as the CM once again.

According to C fore, the most important problems being faced were drinking water shortage, bad roads, unemployment and the absence of garbage disposal.

C fore claims to have ensured that different castes and communities were represented in the sample in their actual proportion.

The BJP, of course, has debunked the pre-poll survey completely.

Union Minister Ananth Kumar told India Today that the survey was sponsored by CM Siddaramiah and so, its credibility and veracity is questionable. Claiming that if elections are held any day in the state, “BJP will win 150 seats under the leadership of BS Yeddyurappa and their ‘Chanakya’ Amit Shah who will unfold the strategy.”

  • The pre-poll survey report by Creative Center for Political and Social Studies (COPS):

Opinion Poll by COPS
PartySeats( % )

BJP

11350%

Congress

8638.1%

JDS

2511.1%

Others

2-30.9%

According to another Karnataka Elections 2018 Opinion Poll survey agency hired by the BJP, called Creative Center for Political and Social Studies (COPS), the opposition BJP gets 113 seats. This is the exact number of seats the BJP had won when it swept to power in 2008 under the leadership of former Chief Minister B.S. Yeddyurappa. COPS has given the ruling Congress-led Siddaramaiah government 86 seats and the JD(S), 25 seats.

COPS conducted the survey in July 2017, at the time when there was unrest in the coastal region triggered by the alleged murder of an RSS worker by political rivals which led to protests and demands by the BJP for a ban on the SDPI and KFD.

The survey states that if a poll were held today, the BJP would get a simple majority.

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COPS predicts that the Congress would, however, win a majority of the seats in the Old Mysuru region, winning 21 of 37 seats and could win 16 of the 32 seats in Bengaluru region, leaving the BJP with 14 and the JD(S) with 2.

The COPS survey predicts that the BJP will make a clean sweep in Coastal, Mumbai Karnataka and Hyderabad-Karnataka regions. Of the 40 seats in HK, it will be 25 seats for BJP; in Mumbai-Karnataka, out of 56 seats, BJP will win 36. However, in Central Karnataka, both ruling Congress and BJP could win an equal number of seats.

  • Internal Reports of the Intelligence Bureau by the State Government

Internal Reports of the Intelligence Bureau
PartySeats( % )

Total seats

22551.1%

Congress

95-10021.6%

BJP

90-9520.5%

JDS

30-406.8%

According to Internal Reports of the Intelligence Bureau by the State Government, the JD (S) is likely to sit in the Rajya Sabha seat this time. The ruling Congress and the Opposition BJP are presently showing equal performance.The report also says at present the Congress is ahead of BJP, but it can bounce back anytime.

According to intelligence sources, if elections are held immediately, the Congress is likely to have between 95 and 100, BJP 90 to 95 and JD(S) 30 to 40 MLAs. The report said JD(S) was based on the popularity of its deputy Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy’s popularity.

About six months ago the opinion was in favor of BJP, and Congress was worried after the reports of its internal survey. But now the things are seemed to be changed. CM Siddaramaiah’s fierce accomplishment ‘Yatras’, his popular projects such as Indira Canteen, and many ‘Bhagyas’, and the political folds he showed in Lingayat religion, Kannada flag and Mahadayi issues have made the decision in Congress’ favor.

  • India Today-Karvy Opinion Polls

India Today-Karvy
PartySeats( % )

Total seats

22552.7%

Congress

90-10121.1%

BJP

78-8618.3%

JDS

34-438%

The India Today and Karvy Insights conducted a recent survey on upcoming Karnataka Elections 2018 and predicted a hung assembly and a tight race for the crown in Karnataka.

The survey was conducted by in 224 assembly constituencies comprising of 27,919 voters.

According to India Today-Karvy opinion polls survey, the Congress is expected to win 90-101 seats, well short of majority target of 112. The BJP may win 78-86 seats, nearly double to its last tally in 2013, while JD(S) is expected to win 34-43 seats and may play a role of kingmaker in the state.

But in a state consisting of 225 constituencies, it is required to win 112 seats for any party to conquer power. If and all if this kind of situation occurs, 39% people say that Congress should tie up with JD(S). And 29% of people think that BJP and JD(S) should tie up.

Apart from seat tally, the important thing to note in the opinion polls is the vote share percentage. The opinion poll predicts a 37% vote share to Congress, while the BJP is expected to garner 35% vote share.

The difference of vote share between Congress and BJP is just 2 percent and this can play a big role in the elections as even the minor vote swing from one party to other may lead to big change in the final tally.

Many other Karnataka Elections 2018 Opinion Poll will be updated as and when new opinion polls are conducted. Stay tuned to karnatakaelections2018.com

11 COMMENTS

  1. We know that congress is going come in power again in Karnataka but in this party has no clear picture about future and no governance too i hate congress because it follows British policy that is divide and rule now they are doing and practising in Karnataka by dividing veershaivelingayet community . One thing we should remember that in the under BJP government our Karnataka individual liability was 28000 RS now its rises by 42000 RS shame on you siddramaiya please vote for BJP and save Karnataka thinks one and vote because your one vote determine the Karnataka destiny

  2. bjp should learn a lesson by losing deposits in karnataka. they are playing disatrous politics for winning and showing descrimination in funding to southern states. especially while dealing with andhrapradesh , though AP people honoured modi , he failed to fulfil the 19 points of bifucation points and at the same time trying to defame the CM Chandrababu by be friendswith ysrp. The stronch cases which manmohan singh initiated during his government are all weekening by the bjp party. on the otherside allowing Nirav modi, Lalithmodi, vijaymalya to leave the courtry by cheating india and parliament. unless the support of BJP is there there is no scope of escaping from India. Everything is observed by the poeple of south and all are against their dirty politics. Some selfish people supporting BJP by getting some benifits which is very dangerous to the south people and south states as well. The common man should observe the strategy of distruction and be aware of such betrayers and cheaters of the respective states . With the combination of Modi and Amithshaw south india cannot flurish.

  3. i am not belonging any party
    BJP answer of these question
    1 How to give non corruptive govt with these party leader B S yedurappa,Karunakara reddy.Gallijadrana Reddy. etc
    2.How to protect women like thses people are in your party Renkuachari, Ramadas,Hallappa etc
    3.How to give protection otther than hindu religion peopl like these pepole are in BJP .Anthkumar hegde,CT ravi,shobakakka,
    4. what about your promises like JOB(pokkoda mari ),
    5.what about your promise regarding blockmoney (mallya etc)
    6.wther GST is helping poor people or middle class people
    7.if GST is apply all the GOODS why it is not applicable to petrol and diesel even in international market is down
    bettibachvoe slogen : jammu kasmir rape
    etc
    similarrly i am asking diffrent question for diffrent party

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