Karnataka Elections 2018 Opinion Poll
As the Karnataka Assembly Elections are nearing, a few survey agencies have conducted a pre-poll survey and predicted the would-be winner, and the number of votes each party may get. There are two survey agencies that have conducted the opinion poll for the upcoming Karnataka Elections. Here is the detailed report of the pre-poll survey conducted by those agencies.
The pre-poll survey report by C-Fore:
|Opinion Poll by C-Fore|
|Party||Seats||( % )|
C-Fore is a multidisciplinary research organization that specializes in election surveys, market research, opinion polls. The survey for Karnataka Elections 2018 Opinion Poll conducted by this agency has given Congress an absolute majority of its opponents BJP and JD(S) struggling far behind.
The survey report, which has been put up in the agency’s website and circulated by the Chief Minister’s Office on Sunday, predicts 120 to 132 seats for Congress, well ahead of the magic number of 113 for the absolute majority. This survey was not conducted at the request of any political party and was a part of C-Fore’s normal operations.
The survey, which was conducted between July 19 and August 10, predicts BJP to win 60 to 72 seats while JD(S) is left far behind with 24 to 30 seats. The C-Fore survey that used systematic random sampling methodology in selecting respondents covered a total of 24,679 voters in 165 Assembly Constituencies using a structured questionnaire.
According to the survey report, the respondents were spread across 340 urban and 550 rural locations in the state.
|Party||% of Votes|
The report says, if the polls were conducted between July and August, the Congress is expected to get 43 percent of the vote share which is much ahead of BJP at 32 percent and JD(S) at 17 percent.
The current Chief Minister of Karnataka enjoys the overwhelming support of the people of Karnataka as the most popular CM the state has seen in the recent past with 46 percent voting him as the best. B.S. Yeddyurappa of BJP and H D Kumaraswamy of JD(S) are nowhere near with scores of 27 percent and 18 percent, respectively.
The survey has also found out that CM Siddaramaiah’s pet scheme Anna Bhagya is the most appreciated scheme by the respondents. This is followed by the Mid-day meal scheme.
The report states that 53 percent are somewhat satisfied with the Congress government in the state and that 46 percent of the respondents would prefer Siddaramaiah as the CM once again.
According to C fore, the most important problems being faced were drinking water shortage, bad roads, unemployment and the absence of garbage disposal.
C fore claims to have ensured that different castes and communities were represented in the sample in their actual proportion.
The BJP, of course, has debunked the pre-poll survey completely.
Union Minister Ananth Kumar told India Today that the survey was sponsored by CM Siddaramiah and so, its credibility and veracity is questionable. Claiming that if elections are held any day in the state, “BJP will win 150 seats under the leadership of BS Yeddyurappa and their ‘Chanakya’ Amit Shah who will unfold the strategy.”
The pre-poll survey report by Creative Center for Political and Social Studies (COPS):
|Opinion Poll by COPS|
|Party||Seats||( % )|
According to another Karnataka Elections 2018 Opinion Poll survey agency hired by the BJP, called Creative Center for Political and Social Studies (COPS), the opposition BJP gets 113 seats. This is the exact number of seats the BJP had won when it swept to power in 2008 under the leadership of former Chief Minister B.S. Yeddyurappa. COPS has given the ruling Congress-led Siddaramaiah government 86 seats and the JD(S), 25 seats.
The survey states that if a poll were held today, the BJP would get a simple majority.
COPS predicts that the Congress would, however, win a majority of the seats in the Old Mysuru region, winning 21 of 37 seats and could win 16 of the 32 seats in Bengaluru region, leaving the BJP with 14 and the JD(S) with 2.
The COPS survey predicts that the BJP will make a clean sweep in Coastal, Mumbai Karnataka and Hyderabad-Karnataka regions. Of the 40 seats in HK, it will be 25 seats for BJP; in Mumbai-Karnataka, out of 56 seats, BJP will win 36. However, in Central Karnataka, both ruling Congress and BJP could win an equal number of seats.
Internal Reports of the Intelligence Bureau by the State Government
|Internal Reports of the Intelligence Bureau|
|Party||Seats||( % )|
According to Internal Reports of the Intelligence Bureau by the State Government, the JD (S) is likely to sit in the Rajya Sabha seat this time. The ruling Congress and the Opposition BJP are presently showing equal performance.The report also says at present the Congress is ahead of BJP, but it can bounce back anytime.
According to intelligence sources, if elections are held immediately, the Congress is likely to have between 95 and 100, BJP 90 to 95 and JD(S) 30 to 40 MLAs. The report said JD(S) was based on the popularity of its deputy Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy’s popularity.
About six months ago the opinion was in favor of BJP, and Congress was worried after the reports of its internal survey. But now the things are seemed to be changed. CM Siddaramaiah’s fierce accomplishment ‘Yatras’, his popular projects such as Indira Canteen, and many ‘Bhagyas’, and the political folds he showed in Lingayat religion, Kannada flag and Mahadayi issues have made the decision in Congress’ favor.
India Today-Karvy Opinion Polls
|Party||Seats||( % )|
The India Today and Karvy Insights conducted a recent survey on upcoming Karnataka Elections 2018 and predicted a hung assembly and a tight race for the crown in Karnataka.
The survey was conducted by in 224 assembly constituencies comprising of 27,919 voters.
According to India Today-Karvy opinion polls survey, the Congress is expected to win 90-101 seats, well short of majority target of 112. The BJP may win 78-86 seats, nearly double to its last tally in 2013, while JD(S) is expected to win 34-43 seats and may play a role of kingmaker in the state.
But in a state consisting of 225 constituencies, it is required to win 112 seats for any party to conquer power. If and all if this kind of situation occurs, 39% people say that Congress should tie up with JD(S). And 29% of people think that BJP and JD(S) should tie up.
Apart from seat tally, the important thing to note in the opinion polls is the vote share percentage. The opinion poll predicts a 37% vote share to Congress, while the BJP is expected to garner 35% vote share.
The difference of vote share between Congress and BJP is just 2 percent and this can play a big role in the elections as even the minor vote swing from one party to other may lead to big change in the final tally.
Many other Karnataka Elections 2018 Opinion Poll will be updated as and when new opinion polls are conducted. Stay tuned to karnatakaelections2018.com